Caught in the Great Depression, it took Japan 30 years to emerge from the doldrums. During this economic cycle, which industries continued to rise, and which individuals were still able to turn their fortunes around? I believe that this period of Japanese history will surely inspire those who are determined to learn from it!

There is an old Chinese saying, "Thirty years east of the river, thirty years west of the river." Why not 20 or 40 years? Because generally speaking, 30 years is exactly the time it takes for a cycle to complete. In the 1870s, Japan began the Meiji Restoration, spending 30 years to transform itself from a poor and weak fishing village into a military power. After World War II, it took Japan another 30 years to recover its economy and become the world's second-largest economy. From the bursting of the economic bubble in 1990 to the completion of economic recovery, it was exactly 30 years again.

Why did Japan lose three decades? Some say it was caused by the United States, while others say it was Japan's own destiny. In 1985, Western countries led by the United States demanded that Japan sign the Plaza Accord. In the following four or five years, although the Japanese yen had already begun to appreciate significantly, the leverage craze among Japanese residents did not end until 1990. At that time in Japan, everyone was speculating in stocks and real estate, with fortunes made or lost overnight. By 1990, the Japanese government could no longer stand by, fearing that if this continued, something serious would happen, so it proactively announced an interest rate hike, bursting the economic bubble.

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Don't look at Japan's low interest rates now, but in the 1990s, Japan's benchmark interest rate once reached as high as 6%. This was not just pouring cold water on the economy; it was like freezing the Japanese economy in a refrigerator. After the economic bubble burst, the stock market plummeted, and the real estate market was halved. Bankrupt companies and unemployed individuals were everywhere. The common people finally stopped leveraging, but soon a new problem emerged: the Japanese people became complacent. Young people did not fall in love, get married, have children, or consume. They avoided anything that involved spending money. There were a large number of homebodies, and the government became anxious again. Without consumption, how could the country develop?

Therefore, the country urgently convened a meeting and began to study new policies. Someone proposed a bold idea: since residents were not consuming actively, they would be forced to consume. The government began to vigorously develop commercial construction, including shopping malls, entertainment facilities, hotels, and restaurants. However, commercial projects were expensive, and where would the money come from? The government could only issue a large amount of government bonds, increasing the fiscal deficit. Starting in the 1990s, Japan gradually became the country with the highest fiscal deficit ratio in the world, and it still leads by a wide margin, even the United States cannot compare.

The government's actions did have some effect, but it was not significant. People were still reluctant to consume, and young people were called the lost generation. These individuals realized that no matter how hard they worked, their lifetime achievements would never surpass those of their parents. After all, individual power cannot compete with the times. The economy still could not recover, so the Japanese government came up with another big move: to simply lower interest rates and go all the way down.

Starting in 1991, within just two years, Japan's basic interest rate was reduced from 6% to below 2%. In the following years, the Bank of Japan simply lowered interest rates to almost 0%. Now everyone should take out their money to consume, right? Lowering interest rates and deficits did bring back some of Japan's domestic demand, but unexpectedly, the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, perfectly offsetting the stimulus that lower interest rates brought to the economy, making residents even more cautious.

During the Asian financial crisis, six large-scale banks in Japan went bankrupt, once again pulling the entire financial system back to the freezing point. The economy, which was barely hanging on, could still be propped up by the medicine of monetary easing, but now, with the house leaking and the night rain, it was completely ruined. Subsequently, another wave of salary cuts and layoffs swept through Japan, and the vicious cycle began again.

You see, as people's incomes decreased, their willingness to consume became even lower. With reduced domestic demand and a continuous decrease in total social demand, the goods produced by companies could not be sold, and they had to lower prices. At first glance, price reduction seems to be a good thing, but with less money earned by companies, they could only continue to cut salaries and lay off employees. The economic deterioration became a closed loop, and it was impossible to get out. Looking at the government again, with a poor economy, taxes could not be collected, and the previous deficits were pushed so high that there was no way out. Japan could only introduce more aggressive stimulus policies.In 1999, for the first time in Japan, the benchmark interest rate was reduced to 0%. The government was virtually on its knees, imploring the public to consume quickly. Being a leader in Japan was truly challenging. During the same period, Japan saw six prime ministers in five years. It wasn't until 2006 that a significant figure emerged: Shinzo Abe.

After Abe took office, he initiated a large-scale quantitative easing policy. On one hand, the central bank activated the printing press, creating a substantial amount of money. On the other hand, banks lowered lending rates, making it almost effortless for ordinary people to borrow money. Internationally, Japan continued to accumulate debt. This set of loose monetary policies eventually became known as "Abenomics." Two major events occurred: first, Japan experienced negative interest rates, where not only did deposits in banks not earn interest, but account holders also had to pay a fee to the bank. Second, the Japanese yen depreciated significantly, aiming to stimulate the growth of exports and the expansion of businesses overseas.

By 2024, the Japanese economy had finally stabilized. Not only did the stock market soar to record highs, but real estate in Tokyo also returned to its peak levels of decades ago. Most gratifyingly, the employment rate for university graduates in 2023 reached 98%. Students in some popular majors were pre-assigned jobs even before graduation. Many Japanese people remarked that they hadn't seen such a situation in decades.

Although the Japanese economy experienced a prolonged slump for several decades, with a decrease in consumer willingness, not all industries were without opportunities during this period. Instead, some emerging sectors experienced rapid growth and even disruptive innovation. For example, the anime and gaming industries, which represent spiritual satisfaction, and Uniqlo, which has taken cost-performance to the extreme. Additionally, there were services like the "ten-minute quick haircut," which catered to the downgrading of consumption.

Behind every period of prosperity lies a crisis in the making, and each economic crisis represents a reshuffling of wealth. While some get-rich-quick fantasies are shattered, and some families fall into difficulty, others can spot opportunities in the details. The lesson from Japan's history is that when a new economic cycle begins, we should consider what to do and what to absolutely avoid. Learning from history may not guarantee a reversal of fate, but it can at least help you avoid pitfalls and keep the destiny of individuals and families firmly in your own hands.