The Yangtze River Delta, the Greater Bay Area, the Jing-Jin-Ji region, and the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, as the four major growth poles of the national economy, serve as the engines of China's economic growth. After experiencing a decline in their national share due to the impact of the pandemic, these four growth poles have gradually rebounded. Among them, the Yangtze River Delta's economic output now accounts for nearly a quarter of the nation's total.

Yangtze River Delta's Share Rises

On August 21, the Statistical Bureau of Sichuan Province and the Statistical Bureau of Chongqing Municipality announced that in the first half of the year, the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle achieved a regional gross domestic product (GDP) of 4,036.57 billion yuan, accounting for 6.5% of the national total and 30.7% of the western region, respectively increasing by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the growth rate was 5.8%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than both the national and western region averages.

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Additionally, in the first half of the year, the economic output of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle was equivalent to 78.4%, 75.8%, and 26.8% of the Jing-Jin-Ji region, the Greater Bay Area (excluding Hong Kong and Macao, the same below), and the Yangtze River Delta, respectively. These figures are all higher than the same period last year and also higher than the first quarter, indicating a continuous reduction in the gap with the three major economic regions. The economic growth rate was 1.7, 0.6, and 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the Greater Bay Area, Jing-Jin-Ji, and the Yangtze River Delta, respectively.

In fact, this represents a resurgence of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle to its original status. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the national share of the economic output of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle had temporarily declined. In 2022, the GDP of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle was 7,758.799 billion yuan, accounting for 6.4% of the national total and 30.2% of the western region, respectively decreasing by 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points compared to 2021.

It is noteworthy that, according to this data, after the pandemic, the Yangtze River Delta, the Greater Bay Area, the Jing-Jin-Ji region, and the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, the four major growth poles, have gradually rebounded in their national share. In addition to the Chengdu-Chongqing region rebounding to 6.5%, the share of the Yangtze River Delta has further increased, while the national share of the Jing-Jin-Ji region and the Greater Bay Area has remained essentially stable.

First Financial calculated that in the first half of this year, the GDP of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Anhui, three provinces and one city, was 15,055.9 billion yuan, accounting for 24.4% of the national total, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from 24.2% in the first half of last year; the GDP of the Jing-Jin-Ji region was 5,149.2 billion yuan, accounting for 8.34% of the national total, slightly higher than the same period last year; the GDP of the Greater Bay Area was 5,323.74 billion yuan, accounting for 8.63% of the national total, consistent with the same period last year.

In fact, First Financial's calculations show that in 2021, the economic volume of the Yangtze River Delta, the Greater Bay Area, the Jing-Jin-Ji region, and the Chengdu-Chongqing accounted for 24.1%, 8.83%, 8.39%, and 6.5% of the national total, respectively, and in 2022, they respectively decreased by 0.1, 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 percentage points. Currently, the share of the Yangtze River Delta has rebounded, surpassing the 2021 level, approaching a quarter of the national total.

The Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area have shown a more pronounced divergence in their situations. Specifically, in the first half of this year, the GDP of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui grew by 5.8%, 5.6%, and 5.3%, respectively. In contrast, within the nine cities of the Greater Bay Area, apart from Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Huizhou, which grew by 5.9%, 5.3%, and 5.1%, respectively, the growth rate of the remaining six cities in the first half of the year was below the national average.

Industry structure is an important factor contributing to the performance differences between the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area. Comparatively, the industry structure of the Yangtze River Delta is overall more "new". For instance, the manufacturing industry, represented by the new energy industry, has driven rapid industrial growth in places like Jiangsu and Anhui; while Guangzhou's automobile manufacturing has been greatly impacted by industrial transformation, and the manufacturing industry in Foshan has been deeply affected by the downturn in the real estate market.In the first half of this year, Jiangsu's industry growth rate reached 82.5%, with the value added of the equipment manufacturing industry growing by 9.1% year-on-year, contributing 56.2% to the total value added growth of the industrial sector above designated size. Among them, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 13.8%, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 12.6%, and the railway and shipbuilding industry grew by 11.8%.

Guangdong's growth rate for major industrial sectors in production was 66.7%. Driven by factors such as the global recovery of consumer electronics, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 17.6%, with the value added accounting for 25.5% of the industrial sector above designated size, driving the growth of the province's industrial value added by 4.1 percentage points, playing a significant supporting role in industrial growth. However, since the beginning of this year, the demand for automobiles has been weak, leading to a 3.9% decline in the automobile manufacturing industry.

The "Two Norths" region remains noteworthy.

For a long time, China's economy has faced the issue of unbalanced regional development, especially in addition to the gap between the east and west, there has emerged a phenomenon of development differences between the north and south, and these two phenomena are concentrated in the Northeast and Northwest regions.

First Financial calculated that in the first half of this year, the GDP of the five provinces and regions in the Northwest, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang (excluding the western part of Inner Mongolia), was 3,571.899 billion yuan, accounting for 5.79% of the national total, nearly 0.1 percentage points higher than the 5.7% of the same period last year, but slightly lower compared to the levels of recent years.

The industrial structure of the Northwest region is mainly concentrated in the energy and resource industries, and its economic growth performance is relatively dependent on the market conditions of energy and resources. Therefore, its economic share in the national total also has a distinct cyclical nature.

First Financial reporters found that the ratio of the GDP of the five provinces and regions in the Northwest to the national GDP shows an inverted V-shape: from 2009 to 2014, the proportion of the Northwest region in the national economic total was 5.2%, 5.5%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 6.02%, and 6.06%, respectively, showing an upward trend. However, in the following years, it showed a gradual downward trend, with the proportion being 5.8%, 5.7%, 5.6%, 5.7%, 5.53%, and 5.49% from 2015 to 2020.

In recent years, driven by the rising energy market, in 2021, the national share of the Northwest region rose to 5.65%, increasing by 0.16 percentage points from the previous year; in 2022, the total GDP was 703.953 billion yuan, rising by another 0.17 percentage points, with a national share of 5.82%; in 2023, the GDP was 738.8988 billion yuan, with a share of 5.86%, marking three consecutive years of increase.

However, since last year, the energy market, including coal, has continued to decline, and the Northwest economy will face another challenge.

Looking at the Northeast region, although the economic growth rate has picked up to match the national level, the overall economic share is still declining. In 2021, the GDP share of the three provinces in the Northeast (excluding the eastern part of Inner Mongolia) was 4.86%, which dropped to 4.71% in 2022, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points. In 2023, the share was 4.73%. However, First Financial calculated that in the first half of this year, the economic share of the Northeast region has dropped to 4.47%, slightly lower than the 4.51% of the same period last year, and nearly 0.4 percentage points lower than 2021.